经济相互依赖条件下的中美关系研究

Study on Sino-U.S. Relations under Economic Interdependence

作者: 专业:国际政治 导师:王家福 年度:2008 学位:博士 

关键词
economic interdependence power Sino-U.S.

Keywords
economic interdependence, power, Sino-U.S. relation
        本文综合运用国际关系的自由主义与现实主义两种理论视角,研究了经济相互依赖的发展对国际关系的影响,特别是在不同问题领域中对中美关系影响。本文的基本思路是:首先分析自由主义与现实主义者关于经济相互依赖的不同观点,找出各自的优点与不足,并对两者进行综合,提出对本文适用的分析框架。然后,运用这一分析框架,探求经济相互依赖对中美关系的影响。经济相互依赖的发展之所以会对国际关系产生影响,是因为它所带来的经济收益影响了国家在进行对外决策时成本和收益的估算,并影响了国家之间的互动模式。但是这种影响并没有脱离国际体系的无政府状态的制约,以及国家内部政治体制的限制。所以经济相互依赖在不同的问题领域中,对不同的国家将产生不同的影响。非对称的经济相互依赖关系作为一种权力工具的有效性,也会受到这两个因素的制约。在本文对中美关系的分析中,通过三个典型案例验证了这一点。最后,本文指出中美之间的非对称经济相互依赖关系并不会像人们通常认为的那样,成为美国手中的一件有效的权力工具。但是为了防范美国对这一权力手段的使用,中国还是应采取必要措施,以较正这种过于失衡的非对称性依赖。
    After the World II, especially the end of cold war, the increasing interdependence is a significant trend in the international economy. Over the past few decades, there has been a surge of interest in the impacts of economic interdependence on international relations. And with the intercourse in the economic area between China and U.S. has reached a unprecedented high level, such researches become relative with the future of Sino-U.S. relations.Chapter One: International Relations Under Economic interdependenceIn this chapter, I will synthesize the views on economic interdependence of realism and liberalism. Liberalists argue that high level economic interdependence brings about economic gains, increases the cost of war, and improves the communication between nations. Thus, it will promote cooperation and reduces the opportunities of conflicts. Liberalism theories have justified this view and elucidated different causal mechanism through which economic interdependence can effect state’s conflict behaviors. However, these liberal views have been charged by many realists. Realism theories, consisting with its tradition, emphasize on the state’s security concern in the anarchy system. From this point, they argue that the asymmetry and vulnerability led by the increasing interdependence will exacerbate state’s security and in turn make conflicts more likely.Since either of the two perspectives has it’s merits and deficiencies, I intended to build a appropriate analytic frame for the subject of this paper through discussion of these different theories, that is how will economic interdependence effects the Sino—U.S. relations.Chapter Two: Economic Interdependence as a Power MeansEconomic interdependence is a kind of power relation, with can effect one’s actions or intentions through providing benefits or threating to hurt. As one kind of politics power, economic interdependence needs a multi- dimension definition just as the power concept. Before using this kind of relationship as a power weapon, one state must shape a situation under which the other state depends on it heavily, and makes itself on an advantage power position. The using of interdependence as a power means will be constrained by some other factors. First, the patterns of economic interdependence may not develop as the government’s intention. Second, we must also consider the issue of power’s transition from one area to another.Chapter Three: The Economic Interdependence between China and U.S.Next step I will examine to what extend China and U.S. are economic interdependence. To do this, I must choose an indicator for measurement. Realism and liberalism have different opinions about which indicators are suitable for the measuring of economic interdependence. In this chapter, I mainly use bilateral trade data. Then the structure of trading goods, the geographic distribution of the trade in both countries and the benefits gained from trade will be supplemented. Chapter Four: The Cooperation and Conflict between China and U.S.under Economic InterdependenceThe discussion previously has prepared a base for the inquiry on the subject of this paper. Before using the analyzing frame work I have proposed, I will first define the content and structure of China’s national interests and compare it with U.S.’. Through the comparison, I can find out the source of the conflictions. Then I will choose three typical cases to analyze and test. Finally, I will draw a conclusion about the effect of economic interdependence on Sino-U.S. relationship.Chapter Five: China’s Choice under Economic InterdependenceAccording to the conclusion drawn in chapter four, I will propose some suggestion about how China can protect and promote it’s national interests under economic interdependence. More important of all, with an eye to the possibility of confliction between China and U.S., some measures must be done to reduce the China’s dependency on U.S., such as establishing strategic reserve, dispersing China’s foreign trade to more other areas or countries, and transforming the growth mode of our national economy. At the same time, we should push Sino-U.S. relation toward regimlization.
        

经济相互依赖条件下的中美关系研究

内容提要4-7
导论7-30
    一、选题原因7-10
    二、文献综述10-17
    三、方法论与研究方法17-19
    四、核心概念的界定19-26
    五、内容架构与主要观点26-28
    六、难点与创新28-30
第一章 经济相互依赖条件下的国际关系30-70
    一、系统层次:自由主义经济秩序与国际关系31-36
        (一) 两种经济秩序的不同影响31-33
        (二) 自由主义经济秩序支持者的理论依据33-36
    二、单元与双边互动层次:机会成本与信号传递理论36-54
        (一) 单元层次的机会成本理论37-46
        (二) 战略互动与信号传递理论46-54
    三、国内层次的理论54-58
        (一) 中间选民分析法55-56
        (二) 多元主义理论56-58
    四、现实主义理论视角下的相互依赖58-66
        (一) 现实主义的批判59-63
        (二) 两者产生分歧的根源63-66
    五、两种视角的综合66-70
第二章 作为一种权力工具的经济相互依赖70-103
    一、相互依赖关系的多维度界定70-77
    二、经济相互依赖作为权力工具的使用77-94
        (一) 贸易的供给效应78-79
        (二) 贸易的权力效应79-94
    三、经济相互依赖作为权力工具的局限94-103
        (一) 相互依赖的可控性95-96
        (二) 非对称依赖优势的可转化性96-103
第三章 中美经济相互依赖的现状103-139
    一、两国经贸关系发展的历史回顾及现状103-115
        (一) 双边贸易的发展103-112
        (二) 美国对华直接投资112-115
    二、中美经济相互依赖的计量分析115-139
        (一) 计量标准的选择115-122
        (二) 对中美经济相互依赖的计量122-139
第四章 经济相互依赖条件下中美关系139-185
    一、中美国家利益比较——一致与分歧139-151
        (一) 国家利益的结构139-142
        (二) 中美国家利益界定与比较142-151
    二、案例分析151-185
        (一) 最惠国待遇与人权问题151-162
        (二) 1995—1996 台海危机162-175
        (三) 中美入世谈判175-185
第五章 经济相互依赖条件下中国的政策选择185-205
    一、相互依赖非对称性的较正——转变自身经济和贸易模式185-197
        (一) 战略储备186-188
        (二) 分散贸易188-193
        (三) 扩大内需193-195
        (四) 增加科教和研发的政府投入195-197
    二、相互依赖的管理——中美关系机制化的必要与可能197-202
    三、联系战略的应对202-205
结论205-207
参考文献207-234
攻读博士学位期间发表的论文及成果234-235
论文摘要235-238
ABSTRACT238-239


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