高速公路项目运营效益评价研究

Research on Benefit Evaluation of Expressway Project Operation

作者: 专业:管理科学与工程 导师:康灿华 年度:2008 学位:博士 

关键词
高速公路 运营效益 指标体系 评价模型

Keywords
Highway, Operation benefit, Target system, Appraisal model
        本文从项目角度,运用经济学与管理学中的相关理论,根据业务流程和参与项目各方主体利益行为,对高速公路项目运营阶段效益进行研究。论文的重点是分析高速公路项目运营阶段的效益影响因素,在此基础上,构建运营效益评价体系,建立运营效益综合评价模型,并将此模型应用于项目实证,找出实证项目在运营阶段存在的问题,从而提出提高高速公路项目运营效益的建议。论文共分十章。第一章是导论,主要就研究的背景、目的及意义进行了说明,同时对国内外项目运营效益评价、综合评价方式的研究现状进行了阐述。第二章主要阐述高速公路项目运营效益评价的理论基础。第三章主要分析高速公路运营效益的概念以及基于运营机制、运营环境的运营效益生成机理。高速公路运营效益,是指高速公路运营管理部门或企业运用科学的现代管理手段和有效的经营开发措施,在使高速公路设施的功能得以充分发挥的前提下,利用高速公路本身及其沿线资源而获得的效益。它包括内部效益和外部效益。第四章重点研究影响高速运营效益的关键因素——交通量和不确定性分析。目前的交通量预测方法都是在确定条件下建模的,预测过程都未引入不确定性因素。然而这并不能反映现实世界的真实情况。实际上许多跟交通量相关的因素大多是随机的变量。本章采用基于拉丁超立方抽样的系统仿真方法进行高速公路交通需求的不确定性预测研究。第五章至第七章分别就高速公路运营阶段的社会效益、经营效益和综合效益的评价内容、指标体系、评价模型进行了分析,并对评价模型进行对比分析。高速公路社会效益评价采用多级综合模糊评判模型,根据建立好的指标体系要求,采用了四级综合模糊评判模型。模型借鉴了Fuzzy自评判模型确定隶属度的方法,来确定定量指标的隶属度。结合项目经营管理的实际,主要从高速公路项目经营组织效率、经营管理水平和财务效益三个方面构建项目运营经营效益评价体系,对其进行项目运营经营效益评价。高速公路项目运营经营效益评价指标分为定性指标和定量指标两类。定性指标采取专家打分的形式,定量指标的采用功效函数。作为一个运营效益良好的高速公路项目,不但应具备良好的社会效益,也应具备良好的运营经营效益。高速公路项目运营效益综合评价,即从项目运营的社会效益和项目运营的经营效益两个方面对高速公路项目进行综合评价。考虑到评价对象的特点以及各种综合评价方法的适用范围,本文构建了基于智能算法的综合评价方法,即BP评价模型、RS-NFS和SVM评价模型。通过比较发现BP评价模型和RS-NFS评价模型都具有比较高的精度,其中RS-NFS评价模型达到指定的精度迭代次数最少,评价模型的精度最高。第八章是实证研究。第九章是在理论和实证基础上对提高高速公路项目运营效益提供对策。这些对策包括运营体制优化、运营成本控制、通行费费率的科学决策。第十章对全文的研究进行了总结。本论文的特色主要体现在:(1)在研究的基本视角上,从高速公路项目运营阶段效益的角度出发,对高速公路运营效益的生成机理进行了透彻的分析。(2)在研究内容上,对高速公路项目运营阶段的管理体制、内外部环境、人力资源和财务管理进行了分析,特别是对影响运营效益的关键因素——交通量及其不确定性进行了深入的研究。(3)在研究方法上,运用了系统论、工程项目管理理论、效益分析理论、绩效评价理论、综合评价理论、信息经济学等理论对高速公路项目运营效益进行了分析。(4)在研究成果上,建立了基于神经网络、基于粗集——神经模糊系统和基于SVM的高速运营效益评价模型。
    This article from the project angle, in utilization economic and the management science correlation theories year, according to the service flow and the participation project all quarters main body benefit behavior, conducts the research to the highway project operation stage benefit. The key point is the analysis highway project operation stage benefit influence factor. In this foundation, the construction operation benefit appraisal system, establishes the operation benefit quality synthetic evaluation model, and applies this model in the project real diagnosis, Discovers the real diagnosis project in the operation stage existence question, thus proposed enhances the highway project operation benefit the suggestion.The dissertation can be divided into ten chapters. The first chapter is the introductory remarks, mainly on the research background, the goal and the significance has carried on the explanation, simultaneously to the domestic and foreign project operation benefit appraisal, the quality synthetic evaluation way research present situation has carried on the elaboration. Second chapter main elaboration highway project operation benefit appraisal rationale. Third chapter main analysis highway operation benefit concept as well as based on operation mechanism, operation environment operation benefit production mechanism. The highway operation benefit, is refers to the highway operation control section or the enterprise utilizes the science the modern management method and the effective management development measure, At causes under the premise which the highway facility the function can display fully, use highway itself and the resources obtain along the route benefit. It including internal benefit and exterior benefit. Fourth chapter key research influence high speed operation benefit essential factor - - volume of traffic and uncertainty analysis. The present future traffic volume estimating method all is under the determination condition the modelling, forecast the process all has not introduced the uncertainty factor. However this cannot reflect the real world the real situation. In fact many with the volume of traffic correlation factor is mostly the stochastic variable. This chapter uses the research to carry on the highway transportation demand based on the Latin ultra cubic sampling system simulation method the uncertainty forecast. Fifth chapter to the seventh chapter separately on the highway operation stage social efficiency, the management benefit and the combined earnings appraisal content, the target system, the appraisal model has carried on the analysis, and carries on the contrast analysis to the appraisal model. The highway social efficiency appraisal uses the multistage synthesis fuzzy judgment model, according to target system request which establishes, has used four level of synthesis fuzzy judgment model. The model has profited from Fuzzy from the judgment model determination degree of membership method, determines the quota target the degree of membership. The union project management and operation reality, mainly from the highway project operation scheme efficiency, the management and operation level and the financial benefit three aspects constructs the project operation management benefit appraisal system, carries on the project operation management benefit appraisal to it.In the highway operation social efficiency target system establishment process, uses the fuzzy clustering law to screen the target. The highway project operation management benefit appraisal target divides into the stationary index and the quota target two kinds. The stationary index adopts the form which the expert grades, the quota target use power function. As an operation benefit good highway project, not only has the good social efficiency, also should have the good operation management benefit. The highway project operation benefit quality synthetic evaluation, namely carries on the quality synthetic evaluation from the project operation social efficiency and the project operation management benefit two aspects to the highway project.The highway project operation benefit quality synthetic evaluation, considered the appraisal object the characteristic as well as each kind of quality synthetic evaluation method applicable scope, has constructed based on the intelligent algorithm quality synthetic evaluation method. Namely BP appraisal model and RS-NFS appraisal model. Through the comparison discovered the BP appraisal model and the RS-NFS appraisal model all has the quite high precision, in which RS-NFS appraisal model achieved assigns the precision iteration number of times are least, the appraisal model precision is highest.Eighth chapter is the real diagnosis research.Ninth chapter is to enhances the highway project operation benefit in the theory and the real diagnosis foundation to enhance the countermeasure. These Countermeasures optimize, the operation cost control, the toll tariff macro-scientific policy-making including the operation system. Tenth chapter has carried on the summary to the full text research.The present dissertation characteristic mainly manifests in: (1) in the research basic angle of view, embarks from the highway project operation stage benefit angle, has carried on the thorough analysis to the highway operation benefit production mechanism. (2) in the research content, to the highway project operation stage management system, the internal and external environment, the human resources and the financial control has carried on the analysis, specially to affected the operation benefit the essential factor - - volume of traffic and the uncertainty has conducted the thorough research. (3) in the research technique, utilized the system theory, engineering project theories and so on management theory, benefit analysis theory, achievements appraisal theory, quality synthetic evaluation theory, information economics has carried on the analysis to the highway project operation benefit. (4) in the research results, has established based on the neural network, based on the thick collection - - nerve fuzzy system and based on the SVM highway operation benefit appraisal model.
        

高速公路项目运营效益评价研究

摘要5-7
Abstract7-9
第1章 导论12-22
    1.1 研究背景12-13
    1.2 研究目的和意义13-14
    1.3 国内外研究综述14-19
    1.4 研究内容与方法19-22
第2章 高速公路项目运营效益评价的理论基础22-32
    2.1 经济学理论22-23
    2.2 系统理论23-25
    2.3 工程项目管理理论25-26
    2.4 效益分析理论26-28
    2.5 绩效评价理论28-30
    2.6 综合评价理论30-32
第3章 高速公路项目运营效益分析32-62
    3.1 高速公路项目运营效益概念32-39
    3.2 运营效益生成机理分析39-57
    3.3 高速公路项目运营环境分析57-62
第4章 高速公路项目交通量预测和不确定性分析62-78
    4.1 项目交通量形成机理62-67
    4.2 交通量预测基本思路67-68
    4.3 交通量预测方法及模型68-70
    4.4 交通需求不确定性分析和预测70-78
第5章 高速公路项目运营社会效益评价78-102
    5.1 高速公路项目运营社会效益评价的特点及原则78-80
    5.2 高速公路项目运营社会效益评价的指标体系80-91
    5.3 高速公路项目运营社会效益评价模型的确定91-102
第6章 高速公路项目运营经营效益评价102-123
    6.1 高速公路项目运营经营效益的评价内容102
    6.2 高速公路项目运营组织结构与人力资源评价102-105
    6.3 高速公路项目运营财务评价105-115
    6.4 项目运营经营效益评价方法115-123
第7章 高速公路项目运营效益综合评价123-150
    7.1 高速公路项目运营效益综合评价的内涵123-124
    7.2 高速公路项目的运营综合效益影响因素分析124-129
    7.3 评价指标体系129-130
    7.4 高速公路项目运营效益综合评价模型130-150
第8章 实证研究150-182
    8.1 评价项目概况及交通量预测150-152
    8.2 项目运营社会效益评价152-162
    8.3 项目运营经营效益评价162-177
    8.4 高速公路项目运营效益综合评价177-182
第9章 改善高速公路项目运营效益建议182-197
    9.1 实行委托管理运营模式,提高管理水平182-188
    9.2 把握有效管理不确定性,提高运营效益188-190
    9.3 实行和谐运营,提高运营社会效益190-192
    9.4 加强内部管理,提高运营经营效益192-197
第10章 全文总结与研究展望197-200
    10.1 全文总结197-198
    10.2 本文创新点198-199
    10.3 研究展望199-200
参考文献200-208
附录208-209
致谢209


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