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基于模糊优选的PPP项目特许权决策模拟研究

Simulation Research on Decision-making of Concession for PPP Projects Based on Fuzzy Optimization

作者: 专业:土木工程管理 导师:袁永博 年度:2010 学位:硕士  院校: 大连理工大学

Keywords

PPP mode, Decision-making of concession, Simulation, Fuzzy optimization

        作为一种新型项目融资模式,PPP (Public Private Partnership)模式将政府的政策支持和私营部门相对充裕的资金、先进的管理模式及丰富的管理经验有机结合起来,减轻了政府财政压力,提高了运营效率和服务质量,是公共基础设施领域加快引进外资或民间资本的有效方式之一由于采用PPP模式建设的基础设施项目通常具有投资回收期长、投资额巨大、参与方众多、融资风险复杂等特点,特许权决策的合理与否就成为了PPP项目能否成功的关键因素。如何通过科学合理地特许权决策,达到政府、私营部门以及项目最终消费者之间的利益均衡,进而形成多方共赢的公私伙伴关系,是保证PPP项目在特许期内健康、稳定发展的先决条件。本文的研究以PPP模式融资理论为切入点,重点分析了PPP模式的概念、原理和主要优势,并通过对PPP项目特许权决策理论和经济评价理论的分析,完成了基础理论研究。然后介绍了蒙特卡罗模拟方法,识别出了影响PPP项目特许权决策的两类因素,在此基础上提出了PPP项目特许权决策模拟思路。针对特许权决策的模糊多目标特征,本文在得到模拟结果的基础上构建了特许权方案的模糊优选模型。文章算例证明了该方法的可操作性和有效性,其为解决特许权方案的优选问题提供了一种可行思路,是实现政府、私营部门和项目最终消费者利益均衡的一种有效决策方法。
    As a new mode of project financing, PPP (Public Private Partnership) mode combines public sector’s policy support with private sector’s relatively abundant capital, advanced management mode and management experience. It not only reduces the pressure on government finances, but also improves the operational efficiency and service quality of infrastructure projects. It is an effective way to accelerate the introduction of foreign capital or private capital investment for infrastructure projects.In view of infrastructure projects adopting PPP mode usually have the characteristics of long payback period, huge investment, numerous participants and complex financial risk, the reasonable decision-making of concession becomes a key element for the success of PPP projects. In order to trade-off interests among government, private sector and final consumers and then to form "multi-win-win" public-private partnership, making decision on concession scientifically and reasonably becomes a prerequisite of stable and healthy development for PPP projects in the concession period.This study starts with outlining the theory of PPP mode, focusing on analyzing its meaning, principle and main advantages. And the basic analysis on decision-making of concession is conducted focusing on its key variables and methods of economic evaluation. Then Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced and two types of factors having impact on decision-making of concession are identified. Based on above work, a simulation model for decision-making of concession is proposed. In the light of the multi-target attribute of concession decision, a fuzzy optimization model is further established based on the simulation results. After that, a simple example has demonstrated how the model works and proved its feasibility and effectiveness. The model provides a feasible idea to solve the problem of concession optimization and is an effective decision-making method to trade-off interests among government, private sector and final consumers.
        

基于模糊优选的PPP项目特许权决策模拟研究

摘要4-5
Abstract5
1 绪论8-18
    1.1 选题背景及研究意义8-10
        1.1.1 选题背景8-9
        1.1.2 研究意义9-10
    1.2 文献综述及问题提出10-14
        1.2.1 文献综述10-13
        1.2.2 问题提出13-14
    1.3 本文研究思路、方法及主要创新点14-18
        1.3.1 研究思路14-16
        1.3.2 研究方法16
        1.3.3 主要创新点16-18
2 基础理论研究18-36
    2.1 PPP模式融资理论18-29
        2.1.1 PPP模式概念辨析18-20
        2.1.2 PPP模式原理解析20-23
        2.1.3 PPP模式优势分析23-29
    2.2 PPP项目特许权决策理论29-32
        2.2.1 特许期决策29-30
        2.2.2 特许价格决策30-31
        2.2.3 政府支持决策31-32
    2.3 PPP项目经济评价理论32-36
        2.3.1 净现值法32-33
        2.3.2 内部收益率法33-34
        2.3.3 投资回收期法34-36
3 PPP项目特许权决策模拟研究36-45
    3.1 蒙特卡罗模拟方法概述36-39
        3.1.1 蒙特卡罗模拟原理36
        3.1.2 概率分布常见类型36-37
        3.1.3 概率分布主要预测方法37-39
    3.2 PPP项目特许权决策模拟思路39-45
        3.2.1 主要影响因素识别39-42
        3.2.2 特许权决策模拟模型42-45
4 基于模糊优选的PPP项目特许权决策研究45-60
    4.1 模糊多目标决策理论45-52
        4.1.1 多目标决策研究进展45-46
        4.1.2 目标优属度确定方法46-48
        4.1.3 模糊多目标决策常用方法48-52
    4.2 基于模糊优选的PPP项目特许权决策模型52-60
        4.2.1 模糊优选模型构建52-56
        4.2.2 目标权重确定方法56-60
5 算例研究60-69
    5.1 案例背景60-61
        5.1.1 数据来源60
        5.1.2 基本假设60-61
    5.2 数值模拟研究61-63
        5.2.1 情景设计61-63
        5.2.2 组合设计63
    5.3 特许权方案优选63-69
6 结论与展望69-71
    6.1 结论69
    6.2 展望69-71
参考文献71-75
附录A 权重迭代计算MATLAB程序75-79
攻读硕士学位期间发表学术论文情况79-80
致谢80-82
        下载全文需82


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