黄淮海地区夏玉米产量潜力的变化及影响因素分析

作者: 专业:农业推广 导师:董树亭 年度:2009 学位:硕士  院校: 山东农业大学

Keywords

summer maize, yield potential, influencing factors, climatic condition

        夏玉米产量潜力是指单位面积夏玉米能达到的最高的产量。如何让夏玉米的实际产量接近甚至达到其产量潜力是解决我国夏玉米产量高产再高产问题的关键。产量潜力的影响因素主要有品种、栽培管理措施及气候条件。为明确各因素对夏玉米产量潜力的影响,同时在气候条件的变化下,为夏玉米产量的提高提供支持。本研究利用Hybrid-maize模型及50年(1957—2007年)的气象数据,在中国黄淮海地区模拟了各个年代主要品种(1995s的白马牙、1970s的郑单2号、1990s的掖单13、2000s的郑单958)的产量潜力,较系统的研究了夏玉米产量潜力的变化及影响因素,明确了各因素在产量潜力变化中所占的比重及今后增产途径。主要研究结果与结论如下:1、综合考虑品种、栽培措施、气候条件等因素,产量潜力随年代的变化呈现逐渐升高的变化趋势。实际产量与产量潜力间的绝对差值增大,但增长率在降低。产量潜力与理想产量间的差异逐渐减小。2、50年来品种因素对夏玉米产量潜力的影响逐步降低,1950s-1970s,1970s-1990s,1990s-2000s分别为22%±,16%±,12%±;栽培管理措施的影响所占比重逐渐增大,1950s-1970s,1970s-1990s,1990s-2000s分别为68%±,69%±,79%±;而气候条件变化对夏玉米产量潜力的影响,从整体看年代间变化较大,1950s-1970s,1970s-1990s,1990s-2000s分别为10%±,15%±,9%±。同时不同年份间差异较大,特别是在温度及降雨量变化较大的年份,对产量潜力有较大的影响。3、在品种参数中,对产量潜力影响较大的为潜在穗粒数、潜在灌浆速率及最大光合速率。最大光合速率与产量潜力呈显著正相关,但对产量潜力的影响较小,在一定范围内增加潜在穗粒数及潜在灌浆速率可显著增加产量潜力。4、栽培管理措施对夏玉米产量潜力的影响将逐步增大,通过调整栽培措施可显著提高夏玉米产量潜力。增加种植密度、增施N肥、推迟播期及收获期均是增加产量潜力的有效途径。5、随着夏玉米生育期内的平均温度的升高及降雨量年份间的差异增大,气候条件对产量潜力的影响将增大,但年份间的变化较大。夏玉米生育期内平均温呈升高的趋势,近50年来,平均升高1.2℃。随着生育期内平均温度的升高,夏玉米产量潜力呈现降低的趋势。同时,降雨量又是影响产量潜力的又一重要的因素。研究结果表明,合理调整栽培管理措施可有效的降低或消除气候条件的变化对夏玉米产量潜力的影响。
    Summer maize yield potential is the maximum yield of summer maize in per unit area. How to make the filed yield attain or near to the yield potential is the key to resolve the foodstuff problem. The influencing factors of summer maize yield potential are mainly cultivars, cultivation management measures and climatic conditions. The study is to determine the impact of each factor on summer maize yield potential, meanwhile, to provide support for the increase of summer maize yield under variable climatic conditions. With the utilization of hybrid-maize model and fifty-year meteorological data, the yield potentials of the primary cultivars in each year (Baimaya in 1995s, Zhengdan-2 in 1970s, Yedan-13 in 1990s, Zhengdan-958 in 2000s) have been simulated in Huanghuaihai Area, China. The influencing factors of summer maize yield potential was analyzed, the proportion of each factor in the yield potential and the method of approach the yield potential was analyzed. The main result was as follows.1. Integrated the varieties, planting measure and climate condition, yield potential of summer maize appear obvious decreasing trend with the changes of years. The absolute difference between actual yield and yield potential appear increasing trend, but small change in ratio. The difference between actual yield and yield potential decrease gradually.2. The varieties factor has gradually decreasing impact on summer maize yield potential with the data from 1950s to 1970s, 1970s to 1990s, 1990s to 2000s, 22%±, 16%±and 12%±, respectively; the factor of cultivation management measures has gradually increasing impact with high proportion with data from 1950s to 1970s, 1970s to 1990s, 1990s to 2000s, 68%±, 69%±and 79%±, respectively; in general, climatic conditions factor exerts variable impacts on yield potential in different years with the data from 1950s to 1970s, 1970s to 1990s, 1990s to 2000s, 10%±, 15%±and 9%±, respectively. In addition, the influence differences s are insignificant in sizes and cultivars with large changes in different years, especially in the year with high temperature and rainfall changes, which exert large impact on yield potential.3. The varieties’parameters with higher effection are potential grain number, maximum photosynthetic rate, and initial efficiency of radiation utilization. The maximum photosynthetic rate has a significant positive correlation with the yield potential. The yield potential increase signifitantly with the increase of the potential grain number and the potential filling rate in some extention.4. The effection of planting measure to yield potential will increase gradualy. The rational planting measure will increase yield potential effectively. Increasing the planting density and N fertilizer, derfering the sowing date were the effective measure to increase the yiled potential.5. The effectiong of climate to the yield potential will be higher with the increase of the mean temperature in maize growth period and higher difference of rain among years. The mean tempeture in maize growth period increased gradually in the past fifty years. The increase value is about 1.2℃. Yield potential of summer maize appear obvious decreasing trend with the increase of the mean tempeture in maize growth period. Meanwhile, rainfall is a very importment factor to effect the yield potential in maize. The study indicates that rational cultivation measures’application would release or eliminate the influence of climatic conditions, therefore, increase the yield of summer maize.
        

黄淮海地区夏玉米产量潜力的变化及影响因素分析

摘要4-6
Abstract6-7
1 引言8-15
    1.1 本研究目的与意义8-9
    1.2 国内外研究现状9-15
2 材料与方法15-19
3 结果与分析19-37
    3.1 山东省近50 年来气候条件及玉米产量潜力的变化分析19-24
        3.1.1 气候条件的变化19-21
        3.1.2 产量潜力的变化21-23
        3.1.3 理想产量潜力的变化23-24
    3.2 品种特性对夏玉米产量潜力的影响分析24-27
        3.2.1 不同年代品种特点及产量潜力分析24-25
        3.2.2 光合特性对夏玉米产量潜力的影响25
        3.2.3 籽粒数及灌浆特性对夏玉米产量潜力的影响25-26
        3.2.4 品种参数敏感性分析26-27
    3.3 栽培措施对夏玉米产量潜力影响分析27-31
        3.3.1 密度对夏玉米产量潜力的影响27-28
        3.3.2 收获期对夏玉米产量潜力的影响28-29
        3.3.3 播期对夏玉米产量潜力的影响29-30
        3.3.4 肥料对夏玉米产量潜力的影响30-31
    3.4 气候条件对产量潜力的影响31-37
        3.4.1 气候条件的变化对产量潜力的影响31-33
        3.4.2 气候条件的变化对生育期的影响33-37
4. 讨论37-40
5 结论40-41
参考文献41-46
致谢46
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