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中国大中城市房价波动的关联影响研究

Linkages Effect of Fluctuation in Housing Price Index of Chinese Cities

作者: 专业:经济系统分析与管理 导师:黄飞雪 年度:2010 学位:硕士  院校: 大连理工大学

Keywords

Real Estate Market, Fluctuation of Real Estate Price, Linkages Effect, Center City, Market Stability

        中国房地产业在国民经济发展中起着举足轻重的作用,房地产市场的健康稳定不仅是一个行业的问题,事实上,高房价蕴含着巨大的金融乃至社会风险。关注城市房价波动,最重要的不是关注房价本身,而是关注房地产市场制度是否公平,结构是否合理,长期发展是否健康。因此,研究中国大中城市房价波动的关联特征和影响程度成为亟待解决的问题。本文从理论基础和现实两个层面,系统分析了城市房价的联动机理,即不同城市房价产生联动的原因。在此基础上,采用具有准确拓扑序列的关联结构模型,对城市房价联动进行检验,深入研究了中国大中城市房价波动的关联特征和影响程度。从信息熵的角度分析了房地产市场有序程度的演化过程。引入具有长达数年时间尺度特征的相关统计量,分区域研究城市房地产市场的动态稳定性状况,剖析了发生动态演变的相关市场信息。通过对中国大中城市房价波动的关联影响进行实证研究,结果发现:(1)中国大中城市房地产市场联系紧密,具有较强的联动性,金融危机后大中城市房价的相关性显著提高,联动性更强;(2)波动的中心节点由二三线城市逐渐变为一线城市和二线较强城市,一线城市和二线较强城市房价波动的影响力大幅增长;(3)国际金融危机对中国房地产市场的动态稳定性产生很大冲击,东部区域尤为明显;(4)2010年4月份出台的一系列调控政策导致房地产市场的有序程度降低。本文研究得出如下结论:中国大中城市房价波动关联性较强,产生了明显的联动效应,中心节点城市的房价波动可以对其它相关城市的房价波动产生涟漪效应,从而影响到整个市场的动态稳定性状况。这些结论在某种程度上,填补了城市房价联动只有观点而无实证的空白。建议政府继续加大对大中城市房地产市场的关注力度,尤其是近几年影响力越来越大的一线城市和二线强城市中“中心城市”的房价波动态势,建立公平合理的市场制度,防止由于涟漪效应出现各城市房价轮涨现象,从而构建“居者有其屋”的和谐社会。
    Chinese real estate plays an important role in the development of the national economy. The healthy and stable of real estate market is not only an industry question, in fact, high prices contains a huge financial as well as social risks. Concerned about the housing price fluctuations, the most important thing is not to concern about the price itself, but the fairness of the real estate market system, the reasonable market structure, the long-term healthy development. Consequently, it’s important and imperative to research linkages effect of fluctuation in housing price index of Chinese cities.This paper studies the linkage mechanism of real estate price of cities deeply and systematically. On this basis, the method of subdominant ultra-metric space is introduced in order to study the correlation features of the fluctuations of real estate price of cities. The traditional parameter analysis method would bring the diversity of results in analysis. A time scale up to several years of relevant statistics is introduced, which is to study the dynamic stability of real estate market by sub-regional, analysis of the dynamic evolution of the occurrence of the relevant market information.Via month data from sample of Housing Sales Price Index, result of demonstration is finding:(1) There is more significant clustering effect in the real estate price of cities after the outbreak of Financial Crisis. (2) The central node cities of China are from the second and third line cities to front-line cities. The influence of front-line cities is stronger. (3) The dynamic stability of the real estate market of Chinese cities is relatively stable overall, but the stability is weakened since the 4th quarter of 2007 significantly, especially the eastern region. (4) April 2010 introduced a series of regulatory policies, which have led to the lower degree of real estate market order.It is concluded that there is significant clustering effect and strong correlation in the real estate price of cities. Central node cities have ripple effects on other cities, thus affecting the dynamic stability of the whole market. To some extent, these conclusions are to fill the only point blank. Increase the concern of front-line and strong second-line. Construct the harmonious society of "Home Ownership".
        

中国大中城市房价波动的关联影响研究

摘要4-5
Abstract5
1 绪论8-19
    1.1 研究背景及研究意义8-9
        1.1.1 研究背景8-9
        1.1.2 研究意义9
    1.2 房地产价格和房价指数9-14
        1.2.1 房地产价格9-12
        1.2.2 反映市场波动的房价指数12-14
    1.3 文献综述及研究现状14-17
        1.3.1 房地产价格波动的互动关联14-15
        1.3.2 房地产价格波动的区域差异15
        1.3.3 房地产价格波动的影响因素15-16
        1.3.4 房价波动关联的研究现状16-17
    1.4 论文的研究工作17-19
        1.4.1 研究思路与目标17-18
        1.4.2 论文结构18
        1.4.3 主要创新点18-19
2 城市房价联动机理19-26
    2.1 城市房价联动的波纹理论分析19-21
        2.1.1 人口迁移19-20
        2.1.2 空间套利20
        2.1.3 财富转移20-21
        2.1.4 地区因素21
    2.2 城市房价联动的涟漪效应分析21-23
        2.2.1 涟漪效应及扩展21-22
        2.2.2 涟漪效应与房价波动22-23
    2.3 房价联动的现实基础23-26
        2.3.1 地区经济一体化23-24
        2.3.2 政策制度一体化24
        2.3.3 交通设施一体化24-26
3 大中城市房价波动的关联特征研究26-38
    3.1 房价波动的关联结构模型26-28
        3.1.1 理论假设26
        3.1.2 关联结构模型26-28
    3.2 大中城市房价波动的关联结构28-33
        3.2.1 数据的选取及预处理28-29
        3.2.2 大中城市房价波动的关联结构创建29-33
    3.3 房价波动的结构特征及关联趋势33-38
        3.3.1 房价波动的结构特征33-34
        3.3.2 房价波动的关联趋势34-35
        3.3.3 房地产市场有序程度检验35-38
4 大中城市房价波动的影响程度研究38-50
    4.1 房价波动的影响程度38-42
        4.1.1 数据说明38
        4.1.2 大中城市房价波动的影响程度38-42
    4.2 房价波动影响的市场动态稳定性趋势分析42-50
        4.2.1 动态统计量的引入43
        4.2.2 房地产市场的区域划分43-44
        4.2.3 房地产市场的动态稳定性变化44-50
5 结论与建议50-53
    5.1 研究结论50-51
    5.2 相关政策建议51-53
参考文献53-56
附录 35城市相关系数矩阵及关联影响程度统计56-61
攻读硕士学位期间发表学术论文情况61-62
致谢62-63
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