浙江金融中介发展与经济增长的实证研究

The Empirical Research of Financial Intermediation Development and Economic Growth in Zhejiang Province

作者: 专业:区域经济学 导师:高德想 年度:2010 学位:硕士  院校: 浙江理工大学

Keywords

Financial intermediation, Economic growth, Granger Causality, Co-integration

        金融是现代经济的核心。现代经济是市场经济,市场经济从本质上讲就是一种发达的货币信用经济或金融经济。金融中介是金融体系的重要组成部分,它的健康与否直接关系到经济系统能否良好运行。国内外众多的文献都表明金融中介发展对经济增长有促进作用。既然金融中介发展对经济增长能起到积极的作用,那么如何让金融中介对经济增长起作用也就成为了一个有意义的问题。基于此,本文结合浙江省的实际情况,研究金融中介发展与经济增长的相关关系。本文文献综述首先按照时间顺序对金融中介理论进行梳理,其次概括了国内外关于金融中介发展与经济增长之间相互关系的文献。本文在第三章中主要是对金融中介发展与经济增长的相互作用机理进行分析,从AK模型出发,得出了金融中介通过影响储蓄率、储蓄转化效率、资本配置效率三个方面的因素来影响经济增长。在此基础之上,接下来进入本文的实证部分,首先本文对浙江经济增长与金融中介的现状进行了分析,其次运用计量数学模型对金融中介指标和经济增长指标进行了协整检验和因果关系检验,得出了金融中介规模指标和效率指标与经济增长指标有着正相关关系,金融中介的组织指标与经济增长指标有着负相关关系。同时,金融中介规模是经济增长的原因,金融中介效率与经济增长有着双向的因果关系,经济增长是金融中介组织的原因。再次,在第三章第一节的基础上,运用协整检验方法对金融中介对经济增长的三个作用渠道进行了实证检验,得出了经济增长指标与储蓄率,资本形成和资本配置效率都存在着协整关系。即说明了浙江金融中介发展对经济增长的促进作用主要是通过储蓄率、资本形成、资本配置效率三个途径来实现的。在实证研究的基础之上,本文在最后的一章提出相应的政策建议:一、在政府宏观调控层面:①改进金融调控,保持货币信贷合理增长,②加强信用体系建设,持续优化金融生态,③开放市场,规范发展民间金融;二、在金融中介发展层面:①大力推进国有商业银行改革,②促进金融服务的多样化,③积极发展中小金融中介机构。
    Finance is the core of the modern economy. Modern economy is the market economy and the market economy in essence is a kind of advanced currency credit economy or financial economy. Financial intermediaries are an important part of the financial system, it is healthy or not directly linked to whether the economic system can run well. A large number of documents at home and abroad have indicated that financial intermediation development can accelerate economic growth. Since the development of financial intermediation can play a positive role to the economic growth, then how to make the financial intermediary take effect on economic growth has become a meaningful question.Based on the actual situation in Zhejiang Province, this thesis aims to study the relationship between on financial intermediation development and economic growth. This thesis first reviews financial intermediation theory by time order, secondly outlines documents both domestic and abroad on this area. The third chapter is mainly on analyzing the international mechanism of financial intermediation development and economic growth, then, according to AK model, it draws that financial intermediation influences economic growth through savings rate, savings conversion efficiency, capital allocation efficiency. Then the next step is the positive part. First, this article analyzes current situation of the economic growth and the financial intermediation. Then, by using a mathematical model to measure the financial intermediary index and economic growth index with Co-integration and causality, it draws that the financial intermediation scale index and efficiency indicators have a positive correlativity to the economic growth index, but the organization index of financial intermediation and has a negative correlativity to the economic growth index. At the same time, the size of financial intermediation is the cause of economic growth, financial intermediation efficiency and economic growth have a bi-directional causal relationship between each other, and economic growth is the reason why the financial intermediary organized. Next, by using the co-integrating proof-testing methods, it demonstrates the three effects channel that the financial intermediaries affect the economic growth, in order to draw that there is a co-integrating relationship among the economic growth index and savings rate, capital formation and capital allocation efficiency. It illuminates that the development of financial intermediation in Zhejiang Province promotes economic growth mainly through the savings rate, capital formation, and capital allocating efficiency. On the basis of the positive research, the last capture puts forward some corresponding suggestions at the Government level. First is macro-control, 1. Improve financial control and maintain reasonable growth of credit 2. Strengthen credit system construction, optimize financial ecology. 3. Develop the open market and regulate private finance. Second is the financial intermediation. 1. Push forward the reform of State-owned commercial banks. 2. Verify the financial services. 3. Actively develop medium-sized financial intermediaries.
        

浙江金融中介发展与经济增长的实证研究

摘要4-5
Abstract5-6
1 绪论9-13
    1.1 研究背景9-10
    1.2 研究目的及意义10
    1.3 关键基本概念10-11
    1.4 研究思路、方法及框架结构11-13
        1.4.1 研究思路、方法11
        1.4.2 论文框架结构11-13
2 文献综述13-22
    2.1 金融中介理论13-17
        2.1.1 新古典经济观点13
        2.1.2 现代金融中介理论13-15
        2.1.3 金融中介理论的重大发展:功能观点15-16
        2.1.4 金融中介理论评述16-17
    2.2 金融中介发展与经济增长国外研究的文献综述17-18
    2.3 金融中介发展与经济增长国内研究的文献综述18-22
3 金融中介发展与经济增长的相互作用机理22-30
    3.1 金融中介发展作用于经济增长的传导机制22-28
        3.1.1 提高储蓄率23-25
        3.1.2 提高储蓄转化为投资的比率25-26
        3.1.3 提高资本配置效率26-28
    3.2 经济增长对金融中介的影响分析28-30
4 金融中介发展与经济增长的实证研究30-60
    4.1 浙江金融中介发展与经济增长的现状30-36
        4.1.1 浙江省经济增长的现状30-33
        4.1.2 浙江金融中介的现状33-36
    4.2 指标选取与数据来源36-42
        4.2.1 金融中介发展衡量指标的文献综述36-38
        4.2.2 经济增长的指标选取38-39
        4.2.3 金融中介发展的衡量指标39-42
    4.3 因果关系的实证研究42-52
        4.3.1 单位根检验42-45
        4.3.2 协整检验45-50
        4.3.3 格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验50-52
    4.4 金融中介发展作用于经济增长的途径检验52-58
        4.4.1 金融中介发展与储蓄率52-54
        4.4.2 金融中介发展与资本形成54-55
        4.4.3 金融中介发展与资本配置效率55-58
    4.5 检验结论58-60
5 浙江金融中介与经济增长协调发展的政策建议60-63
    5.1 政府宏观调控层面60-61
        5.1.1 改进金融调控,保持货币信贷合理增长60
        5.1.2 加强信用体系建设,持续优化金融生态60
        5.1.3 开放市场,规范发展民间金融60-61
    5.2 金融中介发展层面61-63
        5.2.1 大力推进国有商业银行改革61-62
        5.2.2 促进金融服务的多样化62
        5.2.3 积极发展中小金融中介机构62-63
参考文献63-67
附录67-68
致谢68-69
攻读硕士学位期间发表的学术论文及研究成果69
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