浙江金融发展与制造业出口结构关系的实证分析

The Positive Analysis on the Relativity of Financial Development and Manufacturing Export Structure in Zhejiang

作者: 专业:产业经济学 导师:郭晶 年度:2010 学位:硕士  院校: 浙江理工大学

Keywords

Financial development, Manufacturing export structure, Positive analysis, Technology innovation, Credit scale

        浙江近几年来金融发展规模日益壮大,并取得了非凡的绩效,同时带动了经济的快速发展。而一个地区的对外贸易结构,尤其是出口商品的结构,以及一个地区的出口主体结构,是一个地区经济发展水平的重要标志和客观反映。所以研究金融发展与出口结构关系具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文选取占出口总额90%以上的制造业行业,拟对浙江金融发展多大程度地推动出口贸易结构优化、改变出口主体结构进行实证研究。金融发展通过对一国资源禀赋的影响、促进技术进步效应和规模经济效应的途径来影响出口产品结构;金融发展通过信贷规模和政策性金融来改变出口主体结构。比较分析现阶段浙江金融发展的概况和制造业出口结构状况,找出金融发展与制造业出口产品结构、金融发展与制造业出口主体之间相互作用的主要途径与作用机制。在建立了理论框架的基础上,通过数据处理、典型相关分析、因果关系检验、简单回归检验四大步骤对浙江金融发展和制造业出口结构关系进行实证分析。实证检验显示浙江金融总量的发展确实促进了出口产品结构优化,特别是加快了机电产品的出口;浙江金融发展中私人信贷发展滞后于金融总体发展水平,但对制造业出口产品结构优化具有正向作用;浙江股票市场直接融资规模占总融资的比重太小,再加上是新兴市场,对浙江制造业出口产品结构优化促进作用很弱;浙江金融发展主要通过技术创新对浙江制造业出口产品结构优化起关键作用;浙江金融发展有利于增加私营企业的出口,推动形成以私营企业出口为主的格局;在没有特别政策性金融的条件下,信贷规模促进了浙江制造业出口主体的变化。最后,在理论和实证分析的基础上提出如何促进金融发展以推动浙江制造业出口产品结构优化和改变制造业出口主体结构的建议。
    The financial development scale expands day by day in recent years in Zhejiang, obtaining the extraordinary achievements and driving the economical fast development at the same time. A region’s foreign trade structure in particular the structure of export commodities, and a region’s structure of export agent, are important indicator of the level and objective reflection of a region’s level of economic development. So there are important theory and the practice significance to study the relationship of financial development and export structure. This paper take manufacturing which export amount to more than 90% in total export, finding out Zhejiang financial development how largely promote export trade structure optimization and alter structure of export agent by positive study.Financial development through varying a country’s resources natural endowment, promoting technology, improving economies of scale affect export commodities structure; financial development via credit scale and policy-related finance to change structure of export agent .By comparing and analyzing the present stage of Zhejiang’s financial development, as well as the development of Zhejiang’s manufacturing export structure, to identify the main channels and mechanisms between financial development and manufacturing export structure.On the base of theory framework,we take the positive study with Zhejiang’s financial development and manufacturing export structure through data processing, canonical correlation analysis, causal relation examination and simple return examination. We can obtain following main conclusions: Zhejiang’s total financial development is to a certain extent can promote structural optimization of Zhejiang’s export, especially sped up the mechanical exportation; Zhejiang’s financial development of private sector credit lags behind the overall level of development, but promote manufacturing export commodities structural optimization; Zhejiang’s stock market in the proportion of the total financing is too small and it is a emerging market, so the promotion of optimize the structure of Zhejiang’s manufacturing commodities export is weak. It has crucial function that Zhejiang’s finance development mainly through technological innovation to optimize manufacturing export commodities structure; Zhejiang’s finance development is help to increase volume of export of private enterprise, so promoting the development of finance can result in private enterprise to take the precedence in the export trade. In the non special policy-type financial condition, credit scale promotes Zhejiang’s manufacturing structure of export agent to change.At the end of this paper, we give the advise of how to optimize Zhejiang’s manufacturing export commodities structure and change manufacturing structure of export agent through deepen financial development on the base of the theory and empirical analysis.
        

浙江金融发展与制造业出口结构关系的实证分析

摘要4-5
Abstract5-6
1 绪论9-13
    1.1 选题背景9-10
    1.2 选题意义10-11
    1.3 研究思路和研究方法11-12
        1.3.1 研究思路11
        1.3.2 研究方法11-12
    1.4 创新与不足12-13
        1.4.1 创新12
        1.4.2 不足12-13
2 相关理论及文献综述13-24
    2.1 金融发展相关理论13-14
    2.2 贸易结构优化理论14-17
    2.3 技术创新理论17-19
    2.4 金融发展与贸易结构关系的国外文献19-21
    2.5 金融发展与贸易结构关系的国内文献21-24
3 金融发展对出口结构影响的机理24-31
    3.1 金融发展对出口产品结构影响的机理24-28
        3.1.1 金融发展、产品比较优势与出口产品结构优化24-26
        3.1.2 金融发展、技术进步与出口产品结构优化26-27
        3.1.3 金融发展、规模经济与出口产品结构优化27-28
    3.2 金融发展对出口主体结构影响的机理28-31
        3.2.1 金融发展、信贷规模与出口主体结构29-30
        3.2.2 金融发展、政策性金融与出口主体结构30-31
4 浙江金融发展和制造业出口结构的状况分析31-41
    4.1 浙江金融发展分析31-34
        4.1.1 浙江金融中介发展迅速31-33
        4.1.2 浙江资本市场发展逐步完善33-34
    4.2 浙江制造业出口结构分析34-41
        4.2.1 浙江制造业出口总量持续增大35-36
        4.2.2 浙江制造业出口产品结构优化发展36-39
        4.2.3 浙江制造业出口主体结构变化明显39-41
5 浙江金融发展与制造业出口结构关系的实证研究41-63
    5.1 金融发展指标的描述及分析41-47
    5.2 金融发展对制造业产品出口竞争力影响的实证分析47-52
        5.2.1 金融发展和制造业产品出口竞争力指标的选取47
        5.2.2 控制变量的选取47
        5.2.3 金融发展对制造业产品出口竞争力影响的实证检验47-52
    5.3 金融发展与制造业出口产品结构关系的实证分析52-59
        5.3.1 样本选择与数据的处理52-53
        5.3.2 典型相关分析53-57
        5.3.3 Granger-causality 检验57-58
        5.3.4 简单回归检验58-59
    5.4 金融发展与制造业出口主体结构关系的实证分析59-63
        5.4.1 样本选择与数据的处理59-60
        5.4.2 典型相关分析60
        5.4.3 Granger-causality 检验60-61
        5.4.4 简单回归检验61-63
6 结论与政策建议63-68
    6.1 基本结论63-64
    6.2 从金融中介发展角度推动浙江制造业出口结构优化64-65
    6.3 从资本市场发展角度推动浙江制造业出口结构优化65-68
参考文献68-72
致谢72-73
攻读学位期间公开发表的论文73
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