首页 > 硕士 > 经济学 > 正文

内化规范认同对信贷违约影响的研究

The Research on the Effects of Internalized Norm Identification on Credit Default

作者: 专业:金融学 导师:朱宪辰 年度:2015 学位:硕士  院校: 南京理工大学

Keywords

norm identification, experimental economics, credit default, performance rate

        目前,国内各大银行对个人消费、个体工商户和小微企业资产放贷所导致的违约行为所引起的不良贷款的问题数见不鲜。银行业近年来的改革创新,并没有使之得以真正缓解。从银监会公布的统计数据可以看出,贷款的高违约现象仍令人担忧。关于信贷违约的影响因素分析,前人大多从银行经营管理和制度经济学的的角度考察,而忽略了影响微观个体做出违约决策的内源性因素。同时,由于已有的社会偏好工作主要是结果导向的,也忽略了个体对于规则本身和社会规范的关注。因此,本文从社会偏好理论出发,同时引入对于规则本身的偏好,关注影响信贷违约行为的内源因素。文中将采用实验研究的方法,通过独裁与最后通牒的组合构建的规则选择实验度量个体不公平规则厌恶偏好和个体的财产不公平厌恶(结果导向的),采用选彩票实验和风险问卷相结合的方法度量个体风险偏好,最后在信任实验的基础上构建无惩罚、组内直接惩罚和组间交互惩罚三组对照实验,度量个体履约程度,考察规则偏好对信贷违约行为的影响。最本文得出以下结论:(1)规范认同对违约行为存在影响,即越是持有规则不公平厌恶的被试其履约程度越高。(2)从实验分析中,还可以发现风险偏好和财产不公平厌恶也对违约行为有显著影响。此外,在设置了对照的三个借贷实验中可以发现,组内直接惩罚对违约行为的分析有显著作用。
    Nowadays, there is a great deal of non-performing loans due to the default of individual borrowers, individual businesses and small businesses who get bank credits from domestic major banks, which is not practically mitigated by the recent reform and innovation movements in the banking industry. From the statistical data published by the CBRC, we can see that the default rate of credit is still an alarming problem. On the study of factors affecting the performance of credit, previous learners mainly analyze from the aspects of bank management and institutional economics, not taking into account the endogenous influences which also have an impact on the individual’s decision of honoring an agreement. Furthermore, as the existing preferred work is primarily result-oriented, previous learners overlook the attentions that each individual pays to the rules and social norms as well. Thus this thesis, basing on social preference theories and preference to rule itself, introduces the autogenous factors that affect credit default. Guided by the method of experimental inquiry, this thesis constructs rules combined by dictatorship and ultimatum, and selects different experiments to measure the subjects’ aversion to unfair rules and unfair property (result-oriented); then tests the subjects’ risk preference through the method integrated by lottery experiments and questionnaires on risk; finally, establishes three groups of experiments (non-punishment, direct punishment within one group and interactive punishment among three groups) on the basis of trust experiment, which will helps to test the performance rates of the subjects and investigate how the rule preference influences the credit default. Above all, the conclusions are:(Ⅰ) the recognition of norms plays a role in the nonperformance of credit, in other words, the more the subjects disgust the unfair rule, the more likely they will keep an appointment; (Ⅱ) risk preference and aversion to property unfair also influence the nonperformance of credit a lot. In addition, seeing from the three compared loan experiments, direct punishment within one group has significant functions on nonperformance.
        

内化规范认同对信贷违约影响的研究

摘要5-6
ABSTRACT6
1 绪论10-15
    1.1 研究背景10-11
    1.2 问题的提出与研究意义11-12
    1.3 研究基础12
    1.4 研究方法12-13
        1.4.1 实验经济学研究方法12-13
        1.4.2 统计分析法13
    1.5 文章内容与结构安排13-15
2 文献综述15-21
    2.1 国内外对信贷违约产生不良贷款的研究15-17
        2.1.1 国内外对违约行为不良贷款产生的原因及影响的综述15-16
        2.1.2 国内外对不良贷款的研究方法的综述16-17
    2.2 规范17-19
        2.2.1 规范的界定17-18
        2.2.2 社会规范对违约行为的度量18-19
    2.3 社会偏好19-21
        2.3.1 利他偏好19-20
        2.3.2 互惠偏好20-21
        2.3.3 不公平厌恶偏好21
3 理论分析与实验假设21-26
    3.1 研究切入点及构思21-22
    3.2 一般社会规范与内化道德22
    3.3 实验经济学经典实验假设22-24
        3.3.1 囚徒困境实验22-23
        3.3.2 最后通牒实验23
        3.3.3 独裁者实验23
        3.3.4 第三方惩罚实验23
        3.3.5 公共物品实验23-24
        3.3.6 信任实验24
        3.3.7 礼物交换实验24
    3.4 理论假设24-26
4 实验实施与基本情况26-43
    4.1 设计思路26
    4.2 实验设计26-30
        4.2.1 选彩票实验27-28
        4.2.2 规则选择实验28-29
        4.2.3 借贷还款实验29-30
    4.3 待检验假设30-31
    4.4 数据变量的选取31-32
        4.4.1 风险偏好指标选取31
        4.4.2 规则不公平厌恶指标选取31-32
        4.4.3 财产不公平厌恶指标选取32
        4.4.4 借贷行为指标选取32
    4.5 实验基本实施情况及被试基本情况32-33
    4.6 实验数据描述性统计33-43
        4.6.1 变量的基本设置33-34
        4.6.2 各变量基本描述性统计34-43
5. 实验结果43-56
    5.1 数据分析思路43
    5.2 组间差异比较43-46
        5.2.1 风险偏好与履约率分布43-44
        5.2.2 规则偏好与履约率分布44-45
        5.2.3 财产不公平厌恶与履约率分布45-46
        5.2.4 三组借贷实验分析46
    5.3 多因素方差分析46-55
        5.3.1 对规则偏好、财产不公平厌恶及风险偏好的检验46-52
        5.3.2 对三组借贷实验的履约行为检验52-53
        5.3.3 多元回归分析53-55
    5.4 本章小结55-56
6. 结论56-59
    6.1 主要结论56
    6.2 对现实生活的启示56-57
    6.3 可能的创新点57
    6.4 存在的不足及改进57-59
致谢59-60
参考文献60-65
附录A:本课题已实施的两次经济学实验65-66
附录B:度量社会偏好的经典实验模型66-68
附录C:经济学实验招募68-69
附录D:风险厌恶问卷69-70
附录E:实验说明70-74
附录F:实验程序界面74-76
        下载全文需50


本文地址:

上一篇:预算软约束下银行政府性贷款行为研究
下一篇:董事会秘书对上市公司信息披露质量的作用研究

分享到: 分享内化规范认同对信贷违约影响的研究到腾讯微博           收藏
评论排行
公告