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出口贸易结构升级与中国产业结构调整研究

The Upgrade of the Export Structure and the Adjustment of Industrial Structure in China

作者: 专业:国际贸易学 导师:苏振东 年度:2010 学位:硕士  院校: 大连理工大学

Keywords

Industrial Structure, Trading Structure, Bonus Structure Hypothesis, Shift-share Method

        产业结构升级是一国经济发展的重要标志和客观反映,是影响经济进一步发展的重要因素。就中国而言,由于长期实行以出口为导向的发展战略,且多出口低附加值的劳动密集型产品,产业结构失衡已成为我国经济发展不稳定的深层次原因。本文首先通过传统的偏离份额分析法分析中国三次产业和工业内部结构变迁过程中要素流动的结构效应,再介绍基于全要素生产率的偏离份额分析法,并对这两种方法进行改进,提出以动态偏离份额分析法分析中国三次产业和工业内部结构变迁过重要素流动的结构效应,以验证中国产业结构变迁过程中是否存在“结构红利”现象。其次,本文利用理论分析、实证检验以及案例分析的方法分析出口结构对产业结构调整的引导作用,以及它们之间的动态反馈机制。通过理论分析,并结合中国1993-2008年的数据进行实证检验,得出以下主要结论:(1)中国三次产业结构变迁过程中要素流动存在“结构红利”现象,这种现象存在一定的阶段性,1993-1998年和2003-2008年结构变迁过程中存在“结构红利”现象,1999-2002年则出现要素流动的“结构负利”现象。(2)中国工业内部结构变迁过程中要素流动存在一定的“结构负利”现象,1995年之前、1997-1998年、2002-2003年这几个时段“结构负利”现象十分显著,大大超过平常年份的“结构负利”程度,这种现象与国家政策导向、要素禀赋以及经济大环境的影响有关。(3)从贸易方式、贸易伙伴、企业所有制类型三个角度分析出口结构对产业结构的引导作用,我们发现这三个角度都是通过引导结构变动过程中要素流动的方式带动产业结构调整的。分行业数据的实证结果验证了上述观点,并且发现出口结构对制造业内劳动密集型产业的引导作用大于资本密集型产业,同时还发现三次产业就业人数和出口额对三次产业增加值有明显的促进作用。(4)最后本文分阶段的讨论了出口贸易结构和产业结构的互动反馈机制,从中发现出口贸易结构在引导产业结构变迁的过程中,还受到产业结构发展水平的制约。
    Upgrade of the industrial structure is an important indicator of national economic development. For China, the long-established export-oriented development strategy, and export more labor-intensive products with low added value, make industrial structural imbalance in China’s economic development which has become deep-seated and instable reasons.First step of this article, we use traditional shift-share method to analyze the effect of factor’s mobility from the change of the thrice industrial structure and the industrial structure, and later we introduce the shift-share method based on the total factor productivity, then we improve the shift-share method, and put forward the Dynamic Shift-share method. With the dynamic shift-share method, we can dividend the bonus structure hypothesis from thrice industry and industry. For the second step, we use the theoretical analysis, empirical testing and case analysis to analyze the guiding of export structure to industrial structure, and then analyze the dynamic feedback mechanisms between them.Through theoretical analysis, combined with China’s empirical data of 1993-2008, we get the following conclusions:(1) In thrice industry, during the change of the industrial structure, the factors mobility appears the bonus structure. This appearance has a certain stage, from 1993-1998 and 2003-2008, the bonus structure appeared, but in 1999-2002, there is a negative effect of the change of structure.(2) A certain degree of negative effect appeared in the change of industry structure. changed the internal structure of Chinese industry during the flow of certain elements of the structure of the phenomenon of negative interest, before 1995,1998-2002,2003, these periods appears negative effect in the change of industry structure, and much more significant than the normal year. This appearance is concerned with national policy guidance, factor endowments play and the economic environment.(3) To analyze the change of industrial structure from the view of the trading mode, trading partners, enterprise ownership, we find that through these three perspectives can guide the structural changes with factor mobility. The theoretical analysis with Sub-industry data confirmed the above conclusions, and we confirmed that the effect of Labor-intensive industries’guiding of trading structure to industry structure is more significant than Capital-intensive industries. And we also get the conclusion that three industries added value and export volume has significant role in promoting the thrice industry structure.(4) Finally, the paper discusses the interactive feedback mechanism of the export trade structure and industrial structure, and obtained the export trade can guide the process of changing industrial structure, but restrict with the level of industry’s development.
        

出口贸易结构升级与中国产业结构调整研究

摘要4-5
Abstract5-6
1 引言9-15
    1.1 研究背景意义9
    1.2 国内外研究现状9-13
        1.2.1 中国产业结构演进与"结构红利"假说研究9-12
        1.2.2 中国出口贸易结构升级与产业结构调整12-13
    1.3 论文研究内容13-14
    1.4 研究方法和创新点14-15
2 中国产业结构变迁过程中"结构红利"假说的检验分析15-30
    2.1 引言15
    2.2 中国三次产业和工业内部的结构变动情况15-18
    2.3 中国产业结构演进过程中劳动和资本要素的"结构红利"假说检验18-29
        2.3.1 传统的偏离份额分析法与中国"结构红利"假说的检验18-20
        2.3.2 改进的偏离份额分析法与中国"结构红利"假说的检验20-28
        2.3.3 几种方法结论的比较分析28-29
    2.4 小结29-30
3 出口贸易结构对中国产业结构变迁的引导作用机制分析30-38
    3.1 中国出口贸易结构变动情况30-32
        3.1.1 中国对外贸易的基本情况30-31
        3.1.2 从贸易方式分析中国出口贸易结构的变化31
        3.1.3 从商品分类角度分析中国出口贸易结构的变化31-32
    3.2 理论分析32-35
        3.2.1 贸易方式视角32-34
        3.2.2 企业所有制类型视角34-35
        3.2.3 贸易伙伴视角35
    3.3 模型构建35-38
4 实证与案例分析38-54
    4.1 出口结构对中国产业结构变迁的引导作用38-48
        4.1.1 外资企业劳动份额变化情况38-39
        4.1.2 劳动密集型产业劳动份额变化情况39-41
        4.1.3 出口对制造业的影响41-46
        4.1.4 出口对三次产业的影响46-48
    4.2 出口结构与产业结构之间的互动反馈机制分析48-49
    4.3 典型案例分析49-54
5 结论与政策建议54-57
    5.1 研究结论54-55
    5.2 政策建议55-57
参考文献57-59
附录A 工业内部产出、资本和劳动份额增长前十位的行业59-60
附录B 工业内部产出、资本和劳动份额增长后十位的行业60-61
攻读硕士学位期间发表学术论文情况61-62
致谢62-64
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